17 January 2012

Packaged HB-LED consumption to grow from $10.77bn in 2011 to $69.7bn in 2021

Global consumption of packaged HB-LEDs in 2011 was $10.77bn, and is forecast to grow to $69.7bn in 2021, according to ElectroniCast Consultants’ report ‘High Brightness Light Emitting Diodes Global Market Forecast & Analysis (2011-2021)’, which covers HB-LEDs with a lumens/Watt efficiency rating of 30-70lm/W as well as HB-LEDs with a lumens/Watt rating of over 70lm/W.

Decreasing average selling prices (ASPs) are forecast to cause challenging growth patterns in consumption value (quantity x price) in some application segments. Some application categories are therefore forecast to decline in consumption value in the second half of the forecast period (2016-2021); however, the volumes (quantity/number of units) in all categories are forecast for positive growth throughout.

Graphic: HB-LED consumption (by value, in $bn) from 2011 to 2021.

The use of HB-LEDs in Mobile/Portable Devices is forecast to remain a strong segment; however, organic LEDs (OLEDs) continue to take market share. The sector is relatively mature and it already has a substantial consumption value in 2012.

In terms of consumption value, the use of HB-LEDs in the Automotive/Vehicle category is forecast to multiply more than two-fold from 2011 to 2016.

The use of HB-LEDs in Stationary Signals (non-vehicle) is forecast to rise at an average growth rate of just 5.5% from 2011 to 2016. The consumption value is forecast to fall sharply due to price declines, as well as market saturation. However, in terms of volume (quantity/units), the segment is forecast to grow slightly during 2016-2021.

ElectroniCast’s report also provides consumption data for packaged HB-LEDs used for Solid-State Lighting (General Lighting) stationary applications (area illumination), including interior and exterior decorative and functional lighting for residential, commercial and government areas (lighting for vehicles is included in a separate Automotive/Vehicle application category).

The use (consumption value) of HB-LEDs in the Signage/Professional Display application is forecast to rise at an average annual growth rate of 22.1% from 2011 to 2016 and then at 35.9% per year from 2016 to 2021. Consumption of HB-LEDs in ‘Other’ or miscellaneous (non-specified) applications is forecast to reach $710m in 2016, before decreasing during the second half of the forecast period.

The use of HB-LEDs in Consumer-Level TV/Desktop Monitor Backlighting is forecast to maintain a strong market share (%) throughout the first-half of the forecast period, before slipping in market share during the second half due to saturation in many markets as well as an increase in competition from OLEDs. Also, the number of white packaged LEDs required in back-lighting units (BLUs) in consumer-level LCD-TVs (and desktop monitors) will decline, due to increased luminous efficacy and improvements in the supporting optics (components and packaging).

See related items:

Packaged HB-LED consumption to rise from $10bn to $46bn in 2020

Tags: Packaged HB-LED

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