23 May 2011

Packaged LEDs in general lighting to grow from $500m to $13.4bn in 2020

Global consumption of packaged component-level light-emitting diodes (LEDs) used in solid-state lighting (SSL) general lighting applications reached $500m in 2010 and will rise at an average annual growth rate of 33.2% to $2.1bn in 2015 and then more quickly at 44.9% to nearly $13.4bn in 2020, forecasts ElectroniCast Consultants in its latest 10-year market study*. The report also forecasts average selling price (ASP) over the 2010–2020 timeframe.

Graphic: Market forecast for LEDs used in solid-state (SSL) general lighting ($m). Source: ElectroniCast Consultants.

The high-brightness (HB) category also includes ultra-high-brightness (UHB) LEDs (with a luminous efficacy of more than 70 lm/W). UHB-LED prices have a substantial premium over HB-LEDs and, although the quantity of UHB-LEDs produced is currently relatively small, as the use of UHB-LEDs increases the overall effect on the HB-LED category is an increase in annual ASP over 2010–2015.

Otherwise, the trend is for decreasing ASPs throughout the forecast period, as technology and production yield capabilities improve and competition intensifies, while sales channels improve (driven by the fact that governments worldwide are pushing for energy-efficient general lighting), says Stephen Montgomery, president-International Business and principal analyst-LED Practice at ElectroniCast.

*All values and prices are at end-user levels, and are in current dollars, which include the effect of a forecasted 5% annual inflation rate over the forecast period.

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Tags: Packaged LEDs General lighting

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