News

26 October 2010

 

Packaged LED market to grow at 28.2% annually over 2009–2015

The market for packaged LEDs is experiencing tremendous growth, with an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2% between 2009 and 2015, according to new reports on the status of the LED industry (‘SLI 2010’) and LED Manufacturing Technologies (‘LED ManTech 2010’) to be available from market research firm Yole Développement and the European Photonics Industry Consortium (EPIC) of Paris, France from 15 November. In a base scenario, revenue should reach $8.9bn in 2010 and grow to $25.7b in 2015 and nearly $30bn in 2020.

In terms of volume, LED die surface is expected to increase at a CAGR of 41.6% from 6.3 billion mm2 to 51 billion mm2 in 2015. This will prompt substrate volumes to growth from 12.7m TIE (two-inch equivalent) in 2009 to 84.4m TIE in 2015, a CAGR of 37.1% (smaller than the increase in die surface due to significant manufacturing yield improvements). The equipment market will also experience a dramatic growth cycle, with demand driving the installation of nearly 1400 reactors in 2010–2012.

“Anticipation of future demand and generous subsidies in China will trigger the installation of another 700–1000 reactors in the same period, leading to a short period of oversupply starting in late 2011,” reckons EPIC’s general secretary Tom Pearsall. “However, this oversupply will mostly affect the low end of the market.”

Growth in general lighting applications will be enabled by significant technology and manufacturing efficiency improvements that will help to lower the cost per lumen of packaged LEDs by 10-fold between 2010 and 2020. These factors will include: economies of scale; LED efficiency improvement, including at high power (droop effect); improved phosphors; improved packaging technologies; and significant improvements in LED epitaxy cost of ownership through yield and throughput. However, additional breathoughs are needed — Haitz’s Law (stating that every decade the cost per lumen falls 10-fold and the amount of light generated per LED package increases 20-fold, for a given wavelength) is not enough, comments the report.

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